American Idol Top 3 Prediction and Analysis

If you missed last night’s show, you can read the full recap of the episode here.

Best Performance of the Night: Kris Allen singing "Heartless"

Who should go? Danny

Who will go? Danny

I have one thing to say before I begin breaking down who I think will go home and why: The show would have been better with Allison.  Danny was fair/good for both of his songs, while Allison no doubt would have been great/outstanding.  Just like with Carly Smithson’s (click here to follow her on twitter) early departure last year, I’m still bitter.

Prior upsets aside, let’s get to the upset at hand; If Danny Gokey makes it to the finals in anyway, I will be upset.  And not really because he would eliminate either Kris or Adam from the finale, but because he doesn’t deserve it.  Danny is basically the second coming of Taylor Hicks, who by the way is currently playing a minor character in the production of Grease.  Last night, both Adam and Kris outsang and outperformed Danny on each of their songs.  Not only that, but Danny has next to zero commercial potential.  Sure he will sell to his fans that are supporting him on the show, but he doesn’t have the voice to receive mainstream success like Carrie Underwood, Kelly Clarkson, Daughty, etc.  I could see Danny taking a career path similar to Mandisa as a Christian music artist, which is certainly a great path to go down.  Hot 100 radio is just not calling Danny‘s name.

On to the results:  ultimately, I do think Danny Gokey will be leaving us tonight.  For the second week in a row Danny has been the obvious weakest link.  Last week his mysterious fan base carried him through after a wretched screaming rendition of “Dream On”, and this week he wasn’t nearly as bad.  But will they carry him through again underservingly?  My intial guess is no.  If you look back on American Idol, when performers are pulled throught to the next round after a really bad performance, the next week is usually there time to go if they don’t deliver a knockout.  Look at Brooke White last year.  Her start-and-stop dilemma pulled here through (over Carly Smithson, I might add) to the Top 5, but she was then eliminated the next week after performances that were on par to her usual.  Add with that the fact that Adam Lambert and Kris Allen outperformed him by a mile, I think the top 2 is quite clear.

Adam received numerous praise all around from the judges on both performances, and even got a little boost from Simon when he reminded everyone to vote for him because he deserves it and not just assume he will be safe.  Kris also received praise on his second performance of Kanye West’s “Heartless”, which I must say was brilliant.  I think that performance alone produced enough buzz to carry Kris through.  So when it comes down to it tonight, I feel fairly confident that Danny will be leaving us tonight.  Check back here later for a recap and reaction to tonight’s results by bookmarking The Conservative Journal or by subscribing to the RSS Feed and the daily e-mail newsletter to get updates when something new is posted.

Top 3 Scoreboard

• Kris Allen, “Heartless”-  A+ (Only one of the season)
• Adam Lambert, “Cryin”- A-
• Danny Gokey, “You Are So Beautiful”- B
• Adam Lambert, “One”- B-
• Kris Allen, “Apologize”- B-
• Danny Gokey, “Dance Little Sister”- C

Who do you think will be leaving us tonight on American Idol?  Leave your comments below or send us an e-mail at theconservativejournal@gmail.com.  Don’t forget to subscribe to the RSS Feed and the daily e-mail newsletter.

Thanks for reading!

Rick

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