Alaska Senate- This two-way/three-way race has been full of twists and turns, from Joe Miller’s surprising defeat of incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the primary, to Lisa Murkowski’s ambitious venture to win as a write-in. While the polls differ greatly in the this race, one thing is for certain: Democrat Scott McAdams is a non-issue, polling nearly 20 points behind the front-runner Miller in nearly all polls. That leaves Miller and Murkowski, who won’t actually appear on the ballot in November. Conventional wisdom says that Murkowski, while well-known in Alaska as an establishment politician, isn’t going to win a race as a write-in, especially when she can’t even spell her own name correctly. And while she’s polling ahead of McAdams, I can’t see that translating when it comes election time because voters are less likely to vote for her when her name isn’t clearly presented before them. TCJ Prediction: Miller- 50%, McAdams- 26%, Murkowski- 24%
Delaware Senate- Despite successful fundraising ventures and a huge amount of media attention, Tea Party candidate Christine O’Donnell is losing ground to Democratic opponent Chris Coons in the Delaware Senate race. O’Donnell has produced her fair share of laughable sound bites since rising to national prominence, allowing Coons to remain virtually invisible but still able to pick up independent and moderate voters who are not likely to swing toward a candidate seen as extreme like O’Donnell. Current polls are setting the gap as high as 18 points, but I see the race tightening somewhat when we get closer to election day. If O’Donnell would allow Coons to step and make some gaffes of his own (The guy admits to being a Marxist), she may have a SLIGHT chance. As of now, the Democrats will likely get this seat. TCJ Prediction: Coons- 56%, O’Donnell- 44%
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Thanks for reading!
Rick
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The predictions are interesting. It will also be interesting to look at voter turnout because I think alot of people are unhappy with the political arena.
For even the most poll-weary, this one just has to elicit a smile:
— “By 47 to 45 percent, Americans say Obama is a better president than George W. Bush. But that two point margin is down from a 23 point advantage one year ago.
“Democrats may want to think twice about bringing up former President George W. Bush’s name while campaigning this year,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/10/08/cnntime-poll-was-bush-better-president-than-obama/
Down from plus 23 points to plus 2 points in just a year. Imagine that.
An awake and motivated electorate is a wonderful thing to see!
It would be interesting to see the actual outcome.
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