TCJ Research 10/7-10/9 Polls Analysis: Angle Expands Lead, O’Donnell Still Behind

To read our full analysis of how and why Republicans will take the Senate, clickHERE.

The following is a breakdown of poll numbers provided to us by the TCJ Research team.  To view the raw number courtesy of TCJR, click HERE.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Our latest numbers show Republicans at 51% and 9 points ahead of the Democrats, who came in at 42%, on the latest generic ballot poll.  Of the 6% undecided (Remaining 1%- some other party),  about half lean Republican and half lean Democrat, showing that Republicans will likely retain this advantage into election day.

California Senate: The most recent polls by the established pollsters are over a week old on this one, but our numbers show a tighter race with just 2 points separating Boxer (48%) and Fiorina (46%), with 6% left undecided.  A Republican victory in this seat would be HUGE and indisputably signal a Republican takeover of the Senate.  Fiorina can definitely still win this close race, but she needs a game changer.  The momentum is on her side if she’ll get the ball rolling.

Connecticut Senate: As with the above race, our polls are about a week more recent than the most recent reference polls, but our numbers are showing the gap shrinking again.  Blumenthal (52%) is enjoying a 7 point lead over McMahon (45%), though it is smaller than the 11 point lead reported by a pollster last week.  With only 3% undecided remaining, the polls show this seat is Blumenthal’s to lose.  This race could, however, will probably be closer than anyone would have thought.

Delaware Senate: Our numbers are fairly consistent with the recent numbers, giving Coons (53%) a 15 point advantage over O’Donnell (38%).  With Coons comfortably over the 50% mark, and only 9% undecideds remaining, this looks to be a loss for O’Donnell.  With a few smart campaign moves and some negative ads toward Coons, though, this race could easily tighten up.  It’s at least worth a shot because the only way she can win is to bring support for Coons down before she is going to surge forward.

Nevada Senate: Finally for my favorite Senate race of this election cycle, the Sharron Angle v. Harry Reid contest.  Our numbers show Angle (52%) widening her lead to 6 points, largely due to Reid’s numbers falling a bit to 46%.  With only 2% undecided, Angle looks to be in good position for this race.  The only remaining variables are: How many people will vote none of these, and who, if anyone, will vote for 3rd party candidate Scott Ashjan?

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Thanks for reading!

Rick

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