I’ve gone on record numerous times saying that this election cycle has been full of bizarre polls and dramatic interpretations of such polls. That issue has become prominently evident this week, with two polls showing massive gains for the Democratic candidate in a time where both of the candidates were losing steam to their Republican challengers. It started with Washington Senator Patty Murray showing a 15 point lead to Republican nominee Dino Rossi based on an Ellway Poll poll. That result was a complete turnaround from the previous polls showing Rossi leading the race. Of course, the poll was heralded by the mainstream media as the biggest one day comeback in election history. What’s ironic is that our poll that showed Sharron Angle up by 6 at the start of the week was called too extreme a result and a fraud on the national stage. See that disconnect? Back to the point: Even worse is that after a more reputable pollster released numbers quite to the contrary of those by Ellway, the polling headlines still read that Murray had turned it all around.
The latest occurrence of an overly ambitious poll comes today, with a university poll showing Joe Manchin 10 points ahead of Republican John Raese, who has been leading in recent polls. Conventional wisdom would say that shifting a race 13 points in 24 hours is drastic, but unfortunately conventional wisdom isn’t popular anymore.
I say all this to caution you when it comes to interpreting polls. It’s always dangerous when you give each and every poll equal weight in a time when polls are fluctuating by over 10 points A DAY. Before you panic and say that this Democrat had pulled to a 30 point lead in a swing state, or that Democrat is going to challenge the Republicans in the South, take to time to analyze the polls without any bias. Look at the numbers, examine the pollster, and draw a conclusion. Or, just check back here every afternoon and we’ll do thdt for you.
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Thanks for reading,
Rick
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Rasmussen numbers out today …..51 for Coons, 40 for O’Donnell. Interesting …
Lots of problems plague the polls this year. Many of the polling firms are inexperienced. Some are using college students or staff with a significant bias to perform the poll. More common use of cell phones, not included in the polling, may be introducing a bias. With the media polarized toward one side and demonizing the other, respondents may not feel free to express their views. Early polling will take many voters out of the final few weeks with no way to judge that before the ballots are counted.
The answer may not be known until November 2nd…but more like later in the week
Cell Phones certainly skew the results toward
less likely voters.