TCJ Research 10/15-10/16 Poll Analysis: Mark Kirk, Ron Johnson, and John Raese Lead, Carl Paladino and Joe DioGuardi Falling Behind Democrats

To all of the latest TCJ Research Polls, click HERE.

To read our full analysis of how and why Republicans will take the Senate, click HERE.

To the view the percentage-only post for these polls, click HERE.

Here’s a look at the numbers behind our latest crop of polls, which you can find by clicking the link above.

New York Governor: At this point, Republican Carl Paladino has basically lost all support from moderates and even sees his support among Republicans fading.  This is one race that I can say with complete confidence is over.  Undecideds have broken almost completely for Democrat Andrew Cuomo.  This race is also one of the few where the Democrat is retaining his lead and building on it successfully.

New York Senate: More undecideds remain in this poll from the Empire State, showing that voters would be more willing to elect Republican Joe DioGuardi than Republican Gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino, mentioned above.  This race is also likely safe for Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, though there’s a better chance of a turnaround here than in the governor’s race.

Illinois Senate: This is a big race that will play a large part in deciding who controls the Senate following November 2nd.  Compared our previous survey, both candidates picked up a share of undecideds, though Republican Mark Kirk had a slight advantage over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias.  Kirk retains his advantage over Giannoulias in the moderate voter category, though Giannoulias is benefitting from support from nearly all of the Democratic electorate.  Kirk can win this, but he’s going to have to continue outpacing Giannoulias among moderates.

Wisconsin Senate: Republican Ron Johnson leads Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold by a 10 point margin in our first survey of this race.  Only 2% remain undecided, making Johnson’s 10 point lead even more substantial.  Considering Feingold is an incumbent with lower popularity, he’s probably a goner.  Johnson receives solid support from conservatives and holds a very solid lead among moderate voters.

West Virginia Senate: Republican John Raese retains his 2 point lead over Democrat Joe Manchin, though both picked up about 1 point from breaking undecideds when compared to our previous survey from this race.  About 4% still remain undecided in this race, meaning it’s really open for Raese or Manchin to take this one.  Like the Illinois Senate race mentioned above, this race is a make-it or break-it race for Republicans hoping to take control of the Senate.  If Raese is able to associate Manchin with the administrations liberal agenda, he’ll win, probably by a considerable margin.  Manchin’s popularity as a governor and use of ads to portray a conservative image are all that’s keeping him in this race.

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Thanks for reading!

Rick

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