TCJ Research 10/16 Polls Analysis: Sharron Angle Opens Lead Over Harry Reid Following Debate, Ohio Governor Race Tightening Between John Kasich and Ted Strickland, And More

To all of the latest TCJ Research Polls, click HERE.

To read our full analysis of how and why Republicans will take the Senate, click HERE.

To the view the percentage-only post for these polls, click HERE.

Here’s a look at the numbers behind our latest crop of polls, which you can find by clicking the link above.

Colorado Senate: This this is the first poll we’ve run from this race, we’ll have to compare our results to those of other pollsters that have covered this race.  This race seems to have evened out some, with Republican Ken Buck’s lead shrinking just a bit.  Three weeks ago, Buck was shown to have an 8 point lead over Democrat Michael Bennett by Rasmussen; the pollster now shows his lead at just 2.  Our numbers are a bit more positive for Buck, giving a 5 point lead.  Buck is still vulnerable, though, as he is polling right at 50%, and there is plenty of time for incumbent Bennett to turn his chances around.  Party supported showed to be pretty even in our latest poll, with moderates breaking in Buck’s favor.

New Hampshire Senate: This race is also one we haven’t followed before this round of polling, so comparisons will be made based on other national polls.  Our numbers show Republican Kelly Ayotte with a 13 point lead; a bit smaller than the University of New Hampshire’s 15-point Ayotte lead, but more generous than Rasmussen’s 7-point Ayotte lead.  Regardless of the gap between Ayotte and Democrat Paul Hodes, Ayotte will take this seat in the current climate.  A popular Republican is not going to lose to a Democrat when polls show the Republican substantially ahead in this year’s election.

Missouri Senate: Again, this is our first poll in this race (Don’t like our variety?).  Our numbers show Republican Roy Blunt 11 points ahead of Democrat Robin Carnahan, which is a bit lower than CNN/Time’s 13 point Blunt lead.  Both our poll and CNN’s poll show 7% undecided, though CNN’s background numbers show Carnahan performing marginally better among moderates.  That is basically the only difference in our numbers.  Like the race discussed above, barring any drastic event, Blunt should safely win this race.  While it’s hard to compare national and state races, we can’t forget that Missouri did go for John McCain even anti-Republican 2008.  It’s a red state at it’s core and certainly even more so in a year like 2010.

Nevada Senate: Ahhh the Nevada Senate race.  This one and the California Senate race have been my two favorites to watch during 2010, and not just because the Republican is performing quite well.  This race has been of particular interest because it shows the Republican Sharron Angle not only winning, but passing the incumbent and Senate Majority leader Harry Reid by a considerable margin.  Our latest polls show Harry Reid’s numbers virtually unmoved (Literally unmoved when you take rounding into account) from earlier in the week at 44%.  Republican Angle, however, has gained 2 points; a bit from the small share of remaining undecideds and a bit from the voters who planned to vote none of the above.  While Angle has been running more ads in the state and made headlines with her shocking $13 million raised in the 3rd quarter, we believe the shift comes from her debate performance, which was solid and was viewed as such by much of the media.  Angle proved in the debate that she’s not nearly as extreme as Harry Reid would like you to believe.  This race is FAR from over, but Angle has the momentum for now.

Ohio Governor: This race is yet another that we’ve never run polls until now.  Our numbers show Republican John Kasich (47%) up 3 points over Democrat and current Governor Ted Strickland (43%).  This lead is a bit smaller than many polling outfits are reporting, with Quinnipiac giving Kasich a 9-point lead over Governor Strickland.  While Kasich posts a smaller lead with our numbers, one thing is consistent: As RCP points out, Strickland has been hovering in the mid to low 40s for some time now, with no signs of improvement.  A whopping 10% of those surveyed weren’t sure yet, with around 50% leaning toward Kasich and 50% leaning toward Strickland.  That looks good for Kasich, but there’s still a lot of “wiggle room” for Strickland.  I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him pull this out, though we expect Kasich to win.

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Thanks for reading!

Rick

• TCJ Research 10/23-10/25 Poll: John Raese Extends Lead Over Joe Manchin in West Virginia Senate Race
• TCJ Research 10/19-10/20 Poll: Ken Buck Holds Lead Over Michael Bennet in Colorado Senate Race
• TCJ Research 10/10-10/11 Polls Analysis: Angle Holds Lead, Meg Whitman Still Trailing
• TCJ Research California Senate Poll Analysis: Carly Fiorina Benefiting from Strong Party Support, Independent Voter Appeal
• TCJ Research 10/30-10/31 Poll: Mark Kirk Expands Lead Over Alexi Giannoulias in Illinois Senate Race

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