Election 2010 Early Voting: What The Numbers Mean for Republicans, Democrats

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EARLY VOTING

Aside from giving added convenience to voters, early voting can provide useful checkpoints to gauge overall voter turnout in states where early voting makes up a large chunk of overall voting.  It cannot, however, give definitive answers to who will win elections, or to whom all of these early votes are going.  What we can do with early voting data is compare it past elections and use it alongside current trends and the landscape of certain races.  With that in mind, here’s a look at what the early voting data shows for a few of the states that rely most heavily on early votes:

California
Early voting data shows Democrats with 43%-39% edge over Republicans among early voters.  Given that Democrats outnumber Republicans among registered voters by a 44%-31% margin, that figure alone looks good for the GOP.  Many analysts have noted that while early voting look good for the GOP, it’s less favorable than 2006 early voting, which had both parties at 41-41.  To that I say consider this: Democrats began their early vote push with the 2008 election.  Before then, the early vote was heavily comprised of older people who trend Republican.  Even with taking this year’s data as-is, Senate Candidate Carly Fiorina and Gubernatorial Candidate Meg Whitman (both Republicans) hold sizable advantages over Democrats among unaffiliated voters, who’ve made up 18% of the early vote so far.

Colorado:
Early voting data shows that Republicans are out pacing Democrats by a 5% margin, a fairly substantial lead in a state where registration is equal among the two major parties.  Unaffiliated voters make up the largest chunk of the electorate, and they are trending to the right this cycle in Colorado as well.

Florida:
This year, Florida holds the record for largest swing among early voters.  This year, Republicans lead 53% to 34% among early voters.  In a state where the majority of the electorate are Democrats, this is looking to be a state that’s ripe to pick up some Republican ground.

Nevada
Among registered voters, Democrats hold a 5 point advantage.  Among early voters, however, Republicans lead by 1%.  Given the tightness of the Nevada Senate race between (R)Sharron Angle and (D)Harry Reid, turnout is going to be key.  Angle also holds a lead among independent voters, so early voting seems to be consistent with the notion that Angle holds an edge in this race.

West Virginia:
This is the state that requires perhaps the most examination when it comes to interpreting the meaning of early voting numbers. For example, Democrats hold a strong 20% advantage over Republicans among early ballots.  Democrats, however, hold a larger 27% lead among party registration, suggesting that Republicans are turning out more strongly than Democrats.  Additionally, the two candidates for the senate seat, (D)Joe Manchin and (R)John Raese, are running on similar platforms, leaving a lot of room for non-partisan voting.

While the early voting numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt, they do seem to consistent with polling that shows the Republicans have a nice edge over Democrats in the turnout and enthusiasm department.  Whether or not the above trends will continue until election day, however, remains to be seen.

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Thanks for reading!

Rick

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