TCJ Research California Senate Poll Analysis: Carly Fiorina Benefiting from Strong Party Support, Independent Voter Appeal

To view other TCJ Research Polls released today, click HERE.

To read our full analysis of how and why Republicans will take the Senate, click HERE.

Our Election Center database is building, check it out HERE.  Be sure to explore the pages for Senate, House, and Gubernatorial races.  With the Election Center active, look for updates on our predictions at the bottom of each Today in the Polls post.

California Senate: Unlike the majority of our other polls that we’ve released, this poll shows a result that’s largely different from a handful of other pollsters.  We’ve crunched the numbers for a the more differing polls and we’ve boiled it down to one thing: likely. voter. model.  This variable cannot be stressed enough in this election because we’re poised to have a higher turnout than past elections, and that high turnout will be largely comprised of voters who have never voted before.  Comparing our model to the models used by pollsters showing Boxer with a larger lead, we see that those pollsters fail to include this segment of the electorate as “likely voters”.  They instead are relying on a model that parallels turnout during 2008.  This is not 2008, and I think the results will show that on election day.

Nevertheless, our poll shows Fiorina with a 4 point lead over Boxer.  Fiorina has continually increased her advantage over Boxer among independents, with party support staying virtually unmoved for both Fiorina and Boxer.  The likely voter electorate was composed of 34%-Republicans, 39%- Democrats, 25%- Independents.

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Thanks for reading!

Rick

• Updated Election 2010 Senate Race Predictions: Republicans Poised to Take Control of the Senate
• TCJ Research 10/23-10/25 Poll: Carly Fiorina Holds Lead On Barbara Boxer in California Senate Race
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• TCJ Research 10/19-10/20 Poll: Carly Fiorina Slightly Extends Lead on Barbara Boxer in California Senate Race
• TCJ Research 10/23-10/25 Poll: Patty Murray and Dino Rossi Tied in Washington Senate Race

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