Potential Party Switchers Part 1: Which Republican and Democratic Senators Are Likely to Switch Parties Leading Into Election 2012?

The short answer to the above question is simple: none.  The ugly truth is that, while Republicans and Democrats like toying with the idea of luring centrist members of the opposing onto their team, it rarely comes to fruition.  A lot is put at stake during an election season party switch, and it rarely works out well in the end.  Just look at Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Spector.  When things looked dicey in the Pennsylvania Senate Republican primary, he ditched and went to the Democrats.  He then lost that primary, ending any hope he had of another term.  So while party switches aren’t extremely likely, there are a few senators that are more likely to switch than the rest.  Ranked below are the top 8 Republican and Democratic Senators who are most likely to leave their parties:

Mark Pryor (D-AR)

8. Mark Pryor (D-AR)- Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln, also from Arkansas, went down in flames during the 2010 election cycle as one of the poorest performing incumbents in United States history.  Pryor has a voting record similar to Lincoln’s, which puts him at a similar risk.  Additionally, Pryor is just two years into his second term, while Lincoln was ending her 4th when she met her demise.  Voters are going to be much less attached to Pryor than to Lincoln going into his election, and, depending on the climate during his election year, will probably be more than willing to dump him for a Republican challenger.  Though his prospects are winning as a Democrat are slim, Pryor is part of a long Democratic family line, and is unlikely to switch.

7. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)- Like Pryor, Murkowski is part of a long political lineage, though hers is in the Republican party.  Murkowski was appointed as a Republican, but lost out on the primary for the 2010 election, so she mounted a write-in candidacy.  Though all ballots aren’t tallied, she is predicted to prevail as a write-in, thus having no party affiliation at this point.  While it seems on the surface she’ll keep her Republican title, Murkowski have given somewhat conflicting reports about who she’ll caucus with.  At this point, it seems likely she’ll stay red.  With the race in Alaska being as crazy as it was, though, I wouldn’t rule anything out just yet.

6. Claire McCaskill (D-MO)- This party switcher may sound like a stretch,

Claire McCakill (D-MO)

but it may well be McCaskill’s only hope for re-election.  If the anti-Democrat sentiments don’t improve before her term is up in 2012, McCaskill is going to face an uphill battle in red Missouri.  Republican Roy Blunt delivered quite a thumping to Democrat Robin Carnahan in Missouri’s open Senate seat this year, and a strong contender for McCaskill’s seat could do the same.  We mustn’t forget that McCaskill was one of the first to endorse Barack Obama in the Democratic Primaries, which could definitely be used against her during a campaign.  Additionally, McCaskill votes with Democrats only 80% of the time; less than nearly all of her in-party counterparts.  She’s a fairly prominent Democratic figure, but not entirely because she’s extremely Democratic.

Ben Nelson (D-NE)

5. Ben Nelson (D-NE)- Ben Nelson is arguably the most conservative Democratic member of the Senate.  He’s compiled a conservative voting record on nearly all of the hot-button issues: he played a vital role in passing the Bush Tax Cuts, he voted against the final healthcare legislation, he’s pro-life, etc.  It’s truly a wonder that Nelson has remained a Democrat.  With the anti-democrat climate, however, he may find himself in good position to finally leave the Democrats.  Nelson may still find himself in trouble, as he faced some heat for his initial stance on healthcare reform, but a party switch is probably his best bet.

This is just part 1 of the “Party Switchers” series.  For part 2, check back in a few days!

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Thanks for reading!

Rick

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