TCJ Research Polls 2012: Let’s Get This Party Started

Last October, we introduced TCJ Research as the “official” poll provider for The Conservative Journal and we had such a great time during the process, we’ve brought them back bigger and better for the 2012 Election!  For those who were reading here when we introduced TCJ Research, this will sound familiar.  But for our new followers, this is important stuff:

• TCJ Research is a very loose arm of The Conservative Journal.  The polls are conducted via automated call with the numbers chosen from a list, weighted based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region.  Our polls are conducted by a great friend of mine who operates a market research firm and agreed to do our polls under the condition that we leave his company name out of the equation so clients aren’t influenced by the fact that he conducts polls for a conservative website.  It’s a stipulation that, while inconvenient, we’re more than willing to live with in exchange for quality polls.  We know we’ll probably never be taken 100% seriously until we can be 100% transparent (which we understand), but until then, those of us who don’t live to doubt can enjoy the fun!
• NEW IN 2012: As some of you may remember last time around, we weren’t privy to any of the crosstabs for our polls.  We were simply given the results and a quick analysis of those results that we then gave to you guys.  We’re pleased to announce that in 2012, we’ll have access to some crosstab data in addition to the analysis.  It doesn’t look like we’ll get everything, but it’s a great start!

If you have any questions about how this operates and how our polls are conducted, leave a comment below or e-mail us at theconservativejournal@gmail.com if your shy.  For those who are unfamiliar with our polls and curious of how we stacked up in 2010, read below as we brag about ourselves:

• As a whole, we were the MOST accurate national pollster of the House of Representatives in 2010, missing the mark on average by only 1.2 points.  Similarly, our Gubernatorial polls were among the TOP 3 most accurate, averaging an error of only 3 points among all races.  Finally, our U.S. Senate polls, while admittedly underwhelming in comparison to our House and Gubernatorial polls, were more accurate on average than Rasmussen, who averaged about 8 points of error across all Senate polls.
• On a race-by-race level, we were the MOST accurate pollster of the Alaska Senate race, predicting that write-in Lisa Murkowski would beat Joe Miller by 2.5 points.  On election day, Murkowski walked away with a 4-point victory, giving us a measly 1.5 points of error.
• We were the MOST accurate pollster of the Kentucky Senate race, predicting Republican Rand Paul would win by a 12-point margin over Democrat Jack Conway.  We not only predicted the margin to the dot, but also predicted their total share of votes to less than 1-point difference from the final results.
• The Gubernatorial TCJ Polls saw a lot of success, predicting the Texas Governor race and the Pennsylvania Governor race to under 2 points of the final results.
• We were by far the MOST accurate pollster of the Rhode Island Governor race, predicting that Independent Lincoln Chafee would beat the Republican John Robitaille by 4 points.  On election day, Robitaille defied all national pollsters (excepting us) and pushed to withing 3 points of Chafee.
• We were the FIRST to predict that Barney Frank’s House race would be somewhat competitve this year, with our polls showing early on that his opponent Sean Bielat was pushing to within 12 points of Frank.  Similarly, our poll of the South Dakota- At Large seat was the most accurate in predicting margin of victory for Kristi Noem as well as the vote totals for Noem and her opponent.
• We were the most accurate pollster of Virginia’s 5th District House race and the only pollster to accurately predict the vote totals and margin of victory in this race.  We were also the ONLY pollster to predict that Republican Steven Palazzo would beat out long-time Blue Dog Democrat Gene Taylor in Mississippi’s 4th District.  We also predicted the race’s outcome precisely.

With all that in mind, we hope you stick around to see what Election 2012 has in store for TCJ Research Polling.  If you plan to stick around for the ride, our first polls will be out later today and during the week.  Follow us on Twitter (@TCJournalUpdate) by clicking HERE and sign up for our e-mail newsletter by clicking HERE so you can be notified of the latest TCJ Polls the second they’re tabulated.  Thanks for stopping by!

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Thanks for reading!

Rick

• TCJ Research 7/21- 7/22- Michele Bachmann Leads, Others Fall as Rick Perry Joins Iowa Caucus Race
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• TCJ Research 10/17-10/18 Polls: Generic Ballot, Washington Senate, Florida Governor, Colorado Governor (Could Tom Tancredo Pull Off a Win?), Massachusetts 4th District (Could Barney Frank Lose?), and Oregon Senate
• TCJ Research California Senate Poll Analysis: Carly Fiorina Benefiting from Strong Party Support, Independent Voter Appeal
• TCJ Research 10/30-10/31 Poll: Linda McMahon Trails Richard Blumenthal by 5 Points in Connecticut Senate Race

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